Pulse
2026-09-18-v3.0
Dataset
2026-10-27-catalog-ai-v2
Ruleset
b2e8889c66f7
Scanned
2026-10-27
Window
February–September 15, 2026
Catalog tracking observation. This repository is measured with the same fixed window and ruleset, but it is not part of the published benchmark or its aggregate claims.

An extension for Nautilus Trader

01Result

evan-kolberg/prediction-market-backtesting ↗

evan-kolberg/prediction-market-backtesting AI coding statistics: 26.1%

of 414 commits in February–September 15, 2026 were committed by an AI agent — a floor, not an estimate
26.1% agent · top contributor 83.3%2 contributors
individual

One person is driving this. The headline number reflects a single contributor's workflow, not a project-wide shift.

108
agent commits
306
other considered commits
2
agent contributors
83.3%
largest contributor

02Drivers

What shapes this result

Mode, timing, and detected signatures show whether the result reflects broad adoption or one concentrated workflow.

Assisted or autonomous

108assisted
0autonomous

Assisted — a developer’s identity authored the commit and the agent added itself as co-author. Autonomous — a bot identity authored the commit without a human identity attached.

Agent share by month

Agent-attributed commit share by month
MonthAgent shareConsidered commits
2026-0258.1%43
2026-0345.5%99
2026-0419.5%195
2026-050%77

Peak month: 58.1%. Bars are scaled to that peak, not to 100%.

Which agents

AgentVendorCommitsShare
Claude CodeAnthropic10826.1%
OpenAI CodexOpenAI61.4%

03Evidence

Inspect the matches

Public commit samples let you inspect the signatures behind the aggregate result.

Matched commit samples

  • c6974fd5 on GitHubMerge #122 cleanup: book notebook labels and source timing outputClaude Code
  • 8516b576 on GitHubMerge #119 fix: L2 book realism, Telonex/PMXT data paths, and docs refreshClaude Code
  • 291d5a84 on GitHubMerge #116 fix: backtest audit round 2 — realism and robustnessClaude Code
  • 291d5a84 on GitHubMerge #116 fix: backtest audit round 2 — realism and robustnessOpenAI Codex
  • 46215e5e on GitHubMerge #104 feat(telonex): add joint portfolio local workflowOpenAI Codex
  • 8ff1fb29 on GitHubMerge #103 feat(v3): remove PMXT relay and add TelonexOpenAI Codex

04Method

What entered the denominator

The result begins with commit history, removes merges and routine automation, and reports literal agent signatures as a lower bound.

Exclusion ledger

Commits in window476
Merge commits removed−62
CI / dependency bots removed−0
Considered414

Bots are excluded from the denominator entirely. Agent attribution requires a literal supported signature; no code-style inference is used.

Continue exploring

Claude Code commitsBrowse repositories with detected Claude Code signatures →OpenAI Codex commitsBrowse repositories with detected OpenAI Codex signatures →Python AI coding statisticsCompare evidence across Python repositories →GitHub AI commit analyzerInspect another repository with the same evidence model →
Reproduce this observation

Run the same detector locally.

Deterministic signature matching; no code-style inference. Squash merges can remove trailers, so this result remains a measured floor.

npx qmmit-cli evan-kolberg/prediction-market-backtesting

Scan another repository

Try